Bitcoin Halving 2024: Impact, Predictions & Analysis

Over the last week, Bitcoin (BTC) investors enjoyed much profit as the crypto asset gained 8.34% to trade above $71,000, according to data from CoinMarketCap. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $70,285, up 0.25% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the leading cryptocurrency boasted a market cap of $1.38 trillion.

The BTC halving event in April is expected to affect the crypto market greatly. Experts have been particularly providing insights regarding its impact on Bitcoin’s price moment. Insights from analysts Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, Robert Kiyosaki, and Rekt Capital provide valuable perspectives on this matter.

How Will Halving Impact Bitcoin Price?

In a recent YouTube video, Rekt Capital’s analysis outlines the BTC halving phases, drawing comparisons between the 2024 cycle and those of 2020 and 2016. Due to Bitcoin’s price pullback, previous cycles have also seen the pre-halving downside. Similarly, the pre-halving rally phase, characterized by a price surge to new all-time highs, comes before the actual halving event. 

Historical patterns show that the pre-halving rally usually starts about 60 days before the Bitcoin halving, causing the BTC price to rise significantly. However, in the current cycle, a recent retrace of about 18% indicates a shift from the pre-halving rally to the last pre-halving retrace phase. In the past, this stage typically saw a pullback, with the depth ranging from about 19% in 2020 to 29% in 2016. The recent decline, echoing past cycles, suggests that Bitcoin is incorporating elements from various periods.

Moreover, Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” emphasizes the significance of the halving as he’s promptly investing in Bitcoin. He advocates purchasing BTC, even in smaller amounts, citing the potential for appreciation in value post-halving. For this, he suggests investing in Satoshis or the recently launched spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Kiyosaki predicted that the price of BTC would reach $100000 by September due to the event.

Kiyosaki wrote:

“I am buying 10 more bitcoin before April. Why? The ‘Halving.’ If you can’t afford a whole bitcoin you may want to consider buying 1/10 of a coin, via the new ETFs or satoshi’s. I expect bitcoin to be $100K by September 2024.”

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley’s Perspective

In a post on X on March 29, Horsley pointed out the significant reduction in BTC mining supply and its potential impact on market dynamics. He began his prediction by referencing the 2020 halving event, during which BTC’s price was about $9,000. Horsley said BTC saw a significant decrease in token supply after the halving, to the tune of ~$9 million per day and ~$3 billion per year.

Considering that BTC’s price currently hovers around $70,000, he expects the supply reduction to be at least three times larger in dollars. He estimates that the daily reduction in supply will be over $32 million, leading to an annual reduction of more than $11 billion. He said the significant decline in Bitcoin’s supply will also bring about a larger decrease in the natural selling pressure by miners. Moreover, the Bitwise CEO notes this development will coincide with the ongoing rise in institutional demand.

The April 2024 Bitcoin halving may be the most impactful we’ve seen. Why?

The last Bitcoin halving, 2020, Bitcoin was at ~$9,000. So the supply reduction in $ terms was ~$9M a day, and ~$3B a year.

This halving with Bitcoin ~$70,000, it will be >3x greater in $ terms: ~$32M a…

— Hunter Horsley (@HHorsley) March 29, 2024

All factors mentioned by Horsley indicate that BTC will likely see a magnanimous price surge following the halving event. In February, he suggested that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 sooner because of increased investor interest in the new Bitcoin spot ETFs.