Ripple Lawsuit: Pro-XRP Attorney Predicts SEC Victory Slim At Less than 3%

Pro-XRP lawyer John Deaton believes there is less than a 3% chance of the United States (SEC) scoring an outright win against Ripple. The long-running lawsuit nears its end.

According to Attorney John Deaton, there is a 25% probability of Ripple achieving a complete victory over the Securities and Exchange Commission. This coincides with circulating speculation about a potential Ripple initial public offering.

The CryptoLaw founder has been a vocal advocate for Ripple against the SEC. In December 2020, the SEC filed a lawsuit against the company. The lawsuit alleged that the sale of Ripple’s XRP token represented an unregistered securities offering.

During a recent episode of The Good Morning Crypto podcast on June 3, Deaton expressed that there is a 25% probability of presiding U.S. District Judge Torres ruling completely in favor of Ripple.

Additionally, he stated there is a 50% chance of Ripple achieving a favorable outcome through a “splitting the baby” ruling. Judge Torres may rule that XRP was an unregistered security before 2018, indicating her strong stance.

However, in light of the Hinman documents, which allude to internal SEC correspondence, suggest a potential shift for cryptocurrencies. These documents relate to a 2018 lecture by former SEC Director William Hinman.

The implication is that cryptocurrencies could transition from securities to commodities when adequately decentralized. I believe that XRP will be classified as not a security, which is supported by the evidence of secondary market sales.

Even if Judge Torres determines that Ripple broke the law, that ruling will not affect secondary market transactions,” clarified Deaton. Deaton emphasized that Judge Torres is expected to reach a conclusive decision before September 30 this year. Ripple executives, including CEO Brad Garlinghouse, consistently anticipate a resolution to the lawsuit with the SEC.

Impending Judgment & Potential Ripple IPO

According to Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett’s June 2 tweet, Ripple held a “road show” where it visited with underwriters and other investors to gauge interest in a prospective public offering.

🚨NEW: In April, @Ripple hosted a private "road show" (a marketing event where a company and its underwriters meet with potential investors to generate interest in an IPO). I'm told it was attended by just about every reputable institutional investment firm on the Street. https://t.co/fyTzi6pr0W

— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) June 1, 2023

Deaton emphasized the “six-month list” that district judges must provide to Congress. The list contains information on all summary judgments pending for over six months. It will be delivered near the end of March and in September.

Judge Torres has never appeared on this roster, which essentially functions as a public inventory of incompetence, implying, “Hey, I’m terrible at what I do.” Deaton also predicted the price of Ripple’s native XRP coin in the event of a favorable decision.

In An interview on May 22, Deaton emphasized that the Ripple community should closely monitor June 13. Deaton stated, “I believe a reasonable range between $2 and $10 lies.”

On this date, investors will uncover whether XRP was a topic of discussion “among SEC staff before the Hinman speech.” The unsealing of the Hinman materials is expected to occur on this day and can potentially influence the case significantly.

Related Reading | Proposed Bill Targets SEC To Bring Crypto Regulatory Clarity For U.S. Lawmakers

Ripple rumors suggest a post-litigation settlement, potential IPO to take the company public after settling legal disputes.