Bitcoin Nearing ‘Danger Zone’ With Historical Pre-Halving Retrace Patterns Looming

With the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving quickly closing in, crypto analysts have their eyes glued to the markets, speculating on potential price movements. One prominent voice, Rekt Capital, points to a pattern from previous cycles. According to the analyst, in just four days, Bitcoin will officially enter what they term the “Danger Zone” – a period where pre-halving price retracements have begun in the past.

Rekt Capital notes that pullbacks like these are available for 14 to 28 days before halving actually happens. During 2020, the retracement stopped at 20% below recent highs, while in 2016, there was an even steeper fall-off measuring 40%. It’s interesting to note that Bitcoin has already fallen by 11% from its most recent peak this week with just a month left before the next halving.

Despite this, Rekt Capital maintains that Bitcoin’s price is still in a pre-halving upswing for the time being. However, the analyst suggests the cryptocurrency could soon transition into the retrace phase typically seen in advance of a halving. Whether this transition brings turbulence or opportunity remains to be seen.

Bitcoin: Pullback Size and Support Levels

Analyst Jelle offers a slightly different viewpoint, looking at the average size of major pullbacks in the current cycle. According to Jelle’s analysis, these retracements have averaged around 20% so far. If a similarly-sized move were to play out, it could potentially find support near the $58,000 price level for Bitcoin. While not a certainty, Jelle advises market participants to prepare for this possibility.

At the same time,  a philosophical stance to traders emphasizing that patience always counts no matter what happens in a shorter term. Whether Bitcoin touches $60,000 or $80,000 first is ultimately irrelevant if the long-run prediction of $100,000 is met. The key thing, according to Jelle, is riding out the cycles with equanimity.

Remember fellas. Whether #Bitcoin goes up or down — patience remains the name of the game.

Whether we see $60,000 or $80,000 first is irrelevant if you're confident we eventually see $100,000.

Just wait for the cycle to play out.

Hold on tight & enjoy the ride.

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) March 15, 2024

Meanwhile, some important technical levels have been identified by analyst Ali. Between $64,750 and $66,700 lies a strong support zone held by more than 382K addresses, accounting for a cumulative total of 275K Bitcoin. A fall below this point might bring attention back towards the next primary demand area, around $60,760 – $62,790. Conversely, resistance is developing between $70,180 and $71,340 where there are more than 533K addresses holding over 433K BTC.

All in all, the halving is near, and it has caused a range of opinions. Some experts are expecting more downward movements, while others are rather concerned with the bigger picture. In such a frenzied climate, steady thinking and well-thought-out planning are bound to help everyone sail through the roughest patches.